AICPI-IW for Sep-12 released – Likely increase in DA from Jan 2013 is 8%

Central Government Employees, Pensioners and family Pensioners may get Dearness Allowance of 80% with effect from 1st January 2013

The price index which is called as AICPI – IW (All India Consumer price Index for industrial workers with the base as 2001=100) for the month of September 2012 has been issued by Government.

Click here to reade the press release issued by Governement for publishing AICPI-IW for the month of September 2012

This is the table All India consumer price index AICPI-IW for the period from January 2012 to September 2012

Scenario 1:

If we assume that there is no inflation from October 2012 and the AICPI-IW remains at 215 for the months of October, November and December 2012, the expected DA for the Central Government Employees and pensioners will be 80%, which is 8% more than the present 72%

Scenario 2:

If we assume that the inflation will be contained in the coming months and consequently AICPI-IW will be 210 for months from October 2012 to December 2012. Then based on following indices from January 2012 to December 2012 we get estimated DA of 79% with effect from January 2013, which is 7% more than the present 72%

Scenario 3:

If we assume that the nominal inflationary trend to continue in the coming months and consequently AICPI – IW increases 1 point each for the months from October 2012 to December 2012. Then expected DA will be 80% with effect from 1st January 2013, which is 8% more than the present 72%

Scenario 4:

If assume that inflation is more in the coming months and consequently AICPI-IW for the months from October 2012 to December 2012 increased two points each. Then expected DA will be 81% with effect from 1st January 2013, which is 9% more than the present 72%.

we may get DA of 80% with effect from 1st January 2012 if we have same inflationary trend continues or even if we have no further inflation in the coming months:

Based on the pattern we assume the chances for likely happening of scenario 1 and 3 are more. So, we may get DA of 80% with effect from 1st January 2012. The possibility of happening of scenario 4 is very less but we can not overrule the same in this inflationary trend. In that case we may get an additional DA of 9% with effect from 1st January 2013.

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